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In the last reporting year, a total of 313,210 people left Russia, of which 256,480 left for the CIS. If we are not talking about the CIS, but about foreign countries, then in the last year only 56 thousand 730 Russians went there. But there is a peculiarity - the flow of people leaving Russia for far abroad is growing rapidly!
The number of people leaving for foreign countries has increased significantly
If the number of migrants between Russia and the CIS countries in recent years has been kept in a relatively flat percentage corridor in relation to the general indicators, then that small share of those “leaking” from Russia to distant foreign countries grows with a geometrical progression. If in 2009 only 12 thousand 132 people left Russia to foreign countries, in 2012 it was already 27 thousand 179 people, in 2016 - 56 730 people.
In 2016, China, the DPRK, Germany, Georgia, India and Vietnam became the leaders in terms of reception abroad. 1404 Russians went to the USA, 396 went to Canada, 183 went to Australia, 1142 went to Israel, 66 went to New Zealand. Great Britain accepted 388 Russians, Spain - 409, France - 339, Switzerland - 148.
"The number of those who left Russia for permanent residence or long stay in other countries increased in 2011 by 13%, and in 2012 by 3.3 times, which is directly related to the change in the accounting for long-term migration, since migrants began to fall into the number of those who left , the period of stay of which according to the documents has ended. In 2013, the number of departures from Russia increased by another 52%, in 2014 - by 66%, and in 2015 - by 14%, says the report “Migration in Russia, preliminary results of 2017” of the Institute of Demography of the National Research University Higher School of Economics ".
The growth in the number of those leaving Russia in 2014–2015 was in a certain way due to the deterioration of the economic situation in Russia. The reduction in the number of departures from Russia began a year later than the reduction in the number of arrivals. In 2016, the number of departures from Russia decreased by 11.8% excluding Crimea, amounting to 311.2 thousand people against 353.0 in 2015 (taking into account the Crimea - by 11.3%, 313.2 thousand people against 353.2 thousands of people). However, in 2017, the number of departures from Russia, according to preliminary data, increased again noticeably - by 20% - amounting to 372.6 thousand people excluding Crimea and 377.2 thousand people including Crimea. This is the highest number of recorded departures from Russia after the All-Russian Census 2010. ”
Leaving is not staying.
The data of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation differ significantly from those provided by the statistical services of foreign countries and is understated several times, according to the author of the study “Emigration from Russia: the current decade” in the “Demoscope Weekly” Alexander Potapov.
“This is partly explained by the imperfection of accounting for emigration, more precisely, by the fact that people leaving the country are not obliged to report this, they are not removed from the place of registration, therefore, are not recorded by the Russian statistics as emigrants. <...> In addition, in the context of globalization of all spheres of life in the modern world, the concept of “migration forever” is blurring, it becomes difficult to clearly distinguish between different forms of migration, temporary and permanent, ”the author writes. Therefore, in order to represent the real scale of emigration from Russia, it is also necessary to analyze the information of foreign statistical agencies. “It is necessary to take into account that not all migrants who are seen by foreign statistics of receiving countries will become permanent residents of these countries. Some of those who left the country may return (for example, students, students). And, on the contrary, those who were temporary migrants may become long-term (for example, a migrant who has prolonged an employment contract, a visa) ”.
“At present, Russia annually loses a significant amount of the population as a result of its departure to foreign countries. M.S. Denisenko, about 2.7 million natives of Russia live abroad. The geography of emigration is expanding; if previously the majority moved to a limited circle of countries (Germany, Israel and the USA), then in the last 10-15 years migratory flows to the countries of Central, Southern and Northern Europe, Australia, etc. are developing. There may be a significant departure to other countries , including to Turkey, East Asia, ”writes Potapova.
Not more than 5% of Russians emigrate to faraway abroad, but ...
The “Levada-Center” correspondent was told by the “NI” correspondent: according to their data, the proportion of Russians who take real steps to emigrate outside the former USSR does not change for several years and is less than 5% annually of the country's population.
According to the VTsIOM study on immigration attitudes of Russians in 2018, the proportion of those who want to go abroad remains unchanged from 2011 and is in the range of 10-13%. In 2018, 10% of Russians said they wanted to leave for permanent residence in another country. 88% of our fellow citizens would not want to leave Russia for the sake of moving to another country. Such data was obtained as a result of selective polls of 2,000 respondents - Russians of all ages, urban and rural residents.
One third of young people are affected by emigration
Unexpected, however, were the results of a survey of young people. According to VTsIOM, every third young man between the ages of 18 and 24 would like to leave Russia for permanent residence abroad. Political scientist, doctor of political sciences Yuli Nisnevich says about 50% of schoolchildren and young people who, if possible, would like to leave Russia in search of prospects.
- In recent years, there is sociology, which shows that about half of young people are ready to leave, or they are thinking about it. I know this from my experience [of teaching]. Not one hundred percent, but the most capable guys go to study in Europe, in the United States, in Britain. They do not say that they will not return, but, as a rule, they do not return, says Nisnevich. - The so-called millennium generation has a different psychology. They are not going to get a good job, although this, of course, interests them too, but to a greater degree they are looking for professional growth for themselves. They do not see any prospects for professional development in their own country.
According to the scientist, the going wave of emigration is not “sausage” in its pure form, i.e. not economic, but not a “philosophical steamer” in its pure form. Not only intellectuals and dissidents are leaving, but also “muscles” - labor. But if you try to find common ground among all migrants from Russia to foreign countries, this wave of emigration should be called ideological.
- The main leitmotif has two problems: education, which we, unfortunately, are degrading, and the lack of visible prospects for professional and social growth. I think that the number of people who think and decide on emigration will not decrease in the following years.
In addition to pronounced migration attitudes among young people, Nisnevich draws attention to the problem of “brain drain”.
- There are numbers. According to the Russian Academy of Sciences, 42-44 thousand scientists left the Academy over the past year. This is a very big number ...
According to the Russian Academy of Sciences, the figure of 44 thousand highly qualified specialists who left Russia is a two-fold increase since 2013 (at that time, the number of scientists who had emigrated was 20 thousand).
The fact that everything is not calm in Russian science is evidenced by the “Declaration of Scientists of the Russian Academy of Sciences”, which appeared in May, in which scientists predict an even more intensive emigration of the country's scientific elite.
The declaration was written and adopted by 28 members of the July 1 Club, an informal community of academicians and corresponding members of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS), created in 2013 to counter the upcoming reorganization of the RAS. Here is its text:
"one. The recent events related to the appointment of a new government leave no doubt that the authorities purposefully and consistently destroy academic science in the country.
2. The subordination of the RAS institutes to the Ministry of Science and Higher Education, headed by a financier <former head of the Federal Agency for Scientific Organizations, FANO, Mikhail Kotyukov, means the final loss of academic freedoms enjoyed by many generations of scientists during the time of kings and general secretaries.
3. There is no freedom, no creativity, and no science of higher achievements. Power knowingly dooms the country to intellectual isolation.
4. The loss of illusions about the soon restoration of the status of the RAS will in the near future lead to the intensive emigration of young scientists and the remnants of the country's scientific elite, and the authorities should forget about the technological breakthroughs declared.
5. The authorities must know that we, scientists of the Russian Academy of Sciences, will never accept the actual loss of the Academy, as a system of scientific institutions, and the position of serfs in any sort of bureaucratic institutions. ”
The text of the declaration was distributed for signature among the participants of the 4th Conference of Scientists of the Russian Academy of Sciences on May 24. At that time, it was signed by more than 100 scientists.
“Panic moods about the new emigration, in my opinion, are slightly overheated,” says Vladimir Malakhov, director of the Center for Theoretical and Applied Political Science at RANEPA. The fact is that the accounting methods have changed. Since 2011, they began to take into account all those who are removed from the temporary registration. For example, an employee from the CIS countries is registered for nine months. He is removed from registration, leaves the territory of Russia to return here in six months. Such people fall into the statistics of those who left. From here, the figure of 350 thousand is taken - supposedly leaving Russia annually. Against 35 thousand emigrants, which were recorded by statistics until 2011. This is complete nonsense - the numbers of emigration today are about the same as before. Leaves for permanent residence about 40 thousand a year.
But there are real reasons for concern, says the scientist. - Why? There are a lot of people with higher education, specialists among those leaving. “The problem of brain drain is there, but not on such terrible scales as it may seem,” says Malakhov.
According to the expert, demographers and sociologists face a difficult problem: to understand the nature of this new wave.
- It is very difficult to take into account the real behavior of people. The man de jure remained in Russia, because he has an apartment here, but de facto he has been living in another country for a long time, almost constantly. What category should I put it in? Is he an emigrant?
At the same time, there are positive moments in this uncertainty. When a person lives in two houses, he does not make an “existential” decision, does not say that he will never return to Russia. In this kind of emigration - emigration to two houses, Malakhov sees positive moments. Having occupied a high position in a foreign land, theoretically a person can already begin to benefit the economy of his native country. How exactly? A person having gained experience abroad, returning, embodies it in his homeland. Staying abroad, he provides business connections to his country.
“Such emigration should be encouraged, so that people move in economic spaces, so that emigration is not, like in Soviet times, a rehearsal for death, and, fortunately, this is not the case now. People live abroad for a long time and do not break ties with their homeland, the scientist believes.
The characters of emigration in Russia in the XX and XXI century differ
In the past century, the reasons were either a difficult economic situation or a threat of political repression, but now the reason for emigration from Russia is often the desire for self-realization, says analyst at the Center for Political Analysis and Forecast Olga Lavrinenko. Desired countries for immigration are not only more economically developed, but also more developed in terms of democratic values, more advanced in socio-cultural terms. Accordingly, in these countries there are more opportunities for the implementation of technological and creative projects, and there is no need to fear that the project will be too progressive and therefore will not be appreciated both by potential investors and by the potential audience.
- In modern Russia, even despite the deteriorating economic situation in the presence of a sought-after profession, you can find well-paid jobs. The problem is that workers or service specialties are in demand, and far from everyone agrees. With more qualified or creative specialties, the situation is catastrophic. Free competition is absent, to succeed, you need to pull. Entrepreneurial and research projects that go with the times do not have support in the Russian state authorities and cannot be implemented, says Lavrinenko.
The reason for moving the middle age group is disappointment with life in Russia, the political scientist believes. There is a strong discrepancy between the goals of state policy in terms of state propaganda and the goals of state policy addressed to citizens. State channels broadcast on the next radical changes in Syria, but citizens at this time are really concerned about the lack of opportunities in the labor market, the suppression of free competition, the lack of social guarantees. The state, in the name of achievements in foreign policy, demands selflessness from citizens, survival in the current conditions, but citizens are not ready for these sacrifices.
The reason for the emigration of young people is unemployed social elevators. Education has ceased to guarantee a higher social status and a higher salary compared to those who do not have education. Prosperous cronyism leads to the fact that the chances of a great career are only in the children of the elite, the rest are destined to be eternal service workers. In Moscow, the situation is better and more opportunities than in the regions. But, making the choice between leaving the region for Moscow and going abroad, many stop at the last one. Getting education in most EU countries opens up real access to the labor market in these countries and provides an opportunity to open up a business there, including in creative areas. Nepotism in the EU is not welcome, so the success of even a foreigner there depends on his knowledge, skills, performance, and not family ties.
This emigration is definitely an emigration of “brains”, not “muscles”. Representatives of working specialties can get well settled in Russia, while highly qualified personnel face difficulties in self-realization, says Olga Lavrinenko. Free competition, working social elevators, the state’s lack of desire to subordinate the life of citizens to the foreign policy agenda make life abroad more attractive especially for highly qualified personnel.
According to the materials of the newspaper "New News" of October 5, 2018
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